Setup & Installation
Or with the ClawHub CLI, for registry-managed skill folders outside a full OpenClaw workspace:
What This Skill Does
Argus Edge is a prediction market betting engine for Polymarket that computes expected value by comparing TA-implied win probability against market odds. It sizes bets using the Kelly criterion and applies freshness and consensus filters to avoid low-signal markets. Derived from 100+ live bets with documented lessons.
Combines TA signal calibration per asset with freshness and consensus guards, filtering out dead signals that a naive EV calculator would still bet on.
When to use it
- Finding high-EV bets on Polymarket before a market matures
- Sizing a crypto prediction market position with Kelly criterion
- Scanning all active Polymarket markets for edge above 10%
- Fading crowd consensus when TA signals diverge from market odds
- Calculating per-asset bet thresholds for BTC, ETH, SOL, or XRP
Example Workflow
Here's how your AI assistant might use this skill in practice.
User asks: Use argus-edge for full market scan with Kelly sizing
- 1Fetches active Polymarket markets and filters out those older than 30 minutes
- 2Computes TA score for each relevant asset using asset-specific reliability and bias settings
- 3Calculates edge as TA-implied probability minus market-implied probability
- 4Skips markets with edge below 10%, consensus above 92%, or TA score below asset minimum
- 5Returns ranked bets with Kelly stake sizes based on edge and current bankroll
A ranked list of actionable Polymarket bets with edge percentage, recommended YES/NO side, and Kelly-sized stake amount
Requirements
Accounts, API keys, or tools you or your AI assistant may need to set up while using this skill.