Setup & Installation
Or with the ClawHub CLI, for registry-managed skill folders outside a full OpenClaw workspace:
What This Skill Does
Aggregates prediction market data from Polymarket, Manifold, Metaculus, and Kalshi into a unified format. Detects arbitrage gaps between markets and tracks consensus drift over time. Compares implied probabilities across sources to surface trading edge.
Querying four prediction market APIs separately and reconciling their formats manually is tedious; this skill normalizes responses and runs arbitrage and drift detection in one call.
When to use it
- Finding arbitrage between Polymarket and Manifold on the same question
- Detecting when superforecaster consensus diverges from retail market prices
- Scanning for high-edge Polymarket bets using cross-market signals
- Monitoring rapid consensus shifts across prediction markets
- Replacing DomeAPI with an open-source cross-market data feed
Example Workflow
Here's how your AI assistant might use this skill in practice.
User asks: Is there arbitrage between Polymarket and Manifold on BTC hitting $70k by March?
- 1Queries Polymarket CLOB API for the BTC >$70k market and retrieves yes probability and volume
- 2Queries Manifold Markets API for matching question and retrieves yes probability and trader count
- 3Queries Metaculus for any related forecast to get superforecaster baseline
- 4Calculates probability gap between markets and determines arbitrage direction
- 5Returns unified JSON with per-market prices, gap size, and recommended trade direction
Polymarket: 62%, Manifold: 71%, gap of 9% detected — buy Polymarket, sell Manifold; Metaculus consensus at 58%
Requirements
Accounts, API keys, or tools you or your AI assistant may need to set up while using this skill.