LaunchKit · 2026
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cognitive-bullwhip

Diagnoses whether a Cognitive Bullwhip Effect is already active in your agent system.

2
407 downloads
by @jkc3080

Setup & Installation

openclaw skills install @jkc3080/cognitive-bullwhip

Or with the ClawHub CLI, for registry-managed skill folders outside a full OpenClaw workspace:

npx clawhub install cognitive-bullwhip

Version History

v1.0.2Feb 20, 2026 - Version note by skill developer:

Update: re-run after edits; refreshed diagnostic output and report formatting.

What This Skill Does

Diagnoses active Cognitive Bullwhip Effects in AI agent systems. Takes a snapshot of recent agent decision history, calculates variance amplification ratios across layers, identifies where a small input error began compounding, and recommends which intervention skill addresses the root cause.

Rather than debugging visible output symptoms, it maps the full amplification chain back to the origin layer so the fix targets the cause, not wherever the failure last surfaced.

When to use it

  • Tracing why an agent returns wildly different outputs for identical inputs
  • Pinpointing the origin layer of a cascading failure in a multi-step agent pipeline
  • Running a pre-deployment diagnostic on a new agent before production rollout
  • Identifying whether reasoning drift or input noise is driving erratic agent behavior
  • Periodic health checks on long-running agents to catch amplification before it compounds

Example Workflow

Here's how your AI assistant might use this skill in practice.

INPUT

User asks: My agent is producing contradictory analyses on the same market data across runs — what's wrong?

AGENT
  1. 1Accept decision_log entries with timestamps, input summaries, outcomes, and variance scores
  2. 2Scan each layer for output variance exceeding input variance by more than 3x
  3. 3Trace amplification back to the earliest layer where the ratio first spiked
  4. 4Classify the pattern type based on the origin layer (reasoning layer → reasoning_drift)
  5. 5Return severity score, amplification map, and recommended intervention skill with urgency level
OUTPUT

Bullwhip active at severity 72/100. Origin: reasoning layer, 8.2x amplification ratio. Pattern: reasoning_drift. Recommended action: apply LogicStack immediately.