Setup & Installation
Or with the ClawHub CLI, for registry-managed skill folders outside a full OpenClaw workspace:
What This Skill Does
Research-based system for analyzing Polymarket prediction markets and building probability estimates with documented edge calculations. Runs paper trades against a $10,000 simulated portfolio using Kelly criterion position sizing. Tracks calibration across resolved trades and updates its own research methodology based on results.
It enforces edge calculation and calibration tracking across trade batches, which prevents the intuition-based drift that degrades most informal prediction market strategies.
When to use it
- Estimating the probability of a political event before betting
- Logging and reviewing paper trades in a structured research journal
- Receiving scheduled portfolio briefings via Telegram
- Calculating Kelly criterion position size for a new market opportunity
- Running post-mortem analysis on resolved trades to improve calibration
Example Workflow
Here's how your AI assistant might use this skill in practice.
User asks: Research the Polymarket market 'Will the Fed cut rates in March 2026?' currently priced at 35%
- 1Screens market for liquidity, volume, and resolution criteria
- 2Searches Reuters, AP, and Federal Reserve statements for relevant data
- 3Calculates base rate from historical Fed decisions in similar macro conditions
- 4Estimates probability at 28%, calculates edge as 35% minus 28% minus 2% fee equals 5% edge on NO
- 5Documents trade thesis in references/research_journal.md with falsification criteria and confidence level
NO position recommended at $0.65 with $250 stake (quarter Kelly), thesis logged with key data points and conditions that would invalidate the trade
Requirements
Accounts, API keys, or tools you or your AI assistant may need to set up while using this skill.